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. Ulrich Pilster 2014-08-01 Full Text Available While there were several relatively short uprisings in Northern Africa and the Middle East during the Arab Spring, the dispute between the rebels and government forces in Syria has evolved into a full-scale civil war. We try to predict the length of the Syrian insurgency with a three-stage technique. Using out-of-sample techniques, we first assess the predictive capacity of 69 explanatory variables for insurgency duration. After determining the model with the highest predictive power, we categorize Syria according to the variables in this final model. Based on in-sample approaches, we then predict the duration of the Syrian uprising for three different scenarios.

The most realistic point prediction is 5.12 years from the insurgency’s start, which suggests an end date between the end of 2016 and early 2017. 2014-06-13 decision making of criminology scholarship to predict why attacks occur within space and time. The significance of this proposal is important to.environment.

I propose a theoretical construct that combines the systematic analysis of Kalyvas with the individual decision making of criminology. Helwan, Abdulkader 2015-01-01 Heart attack is an asymptomatic and epidemic medical condition that may suddenly occur and causes “death”. Therefore, it is a life-threatening condition and it should be detected before it occurs. Heart attack is so far predicted using the conventional ways of doctor’s examination and by performing some medical tests such as stress test, ECG, and heart CTScan etc.

The coronary vessels constriction, the cholesterol levels in the arteries, and other attributes can be good indicators for making. Peng Liu 2005-11-28 The area investigated by this project is cyber attack prediction. With a focus on correlation-based prediction, current attack prediction methodologies overlook the strategic nature of cyber attack-defense scenarios. As a result, current cyber attack prediction methodologies are very limited in predicting strategic behaviors of attackers in enforcing nontrivial cyber attacks such as DDoS attacks, and may result in low accuracy in correlation-based predictions. This project develops a game theoretic framework for cyber attack prediction, where an automatic game-theory-based attack prediction method is proposed. Being able to quantitatively predict the likelihood of (sequences of) attack actions, our attack prediction methodology can predict fine-grained strategic behaviors of attackers and may greatly improve the accuracy of correlation-based prediction. To our best knowledge, this project develops the first comprehensive framework for incentive-based modeling and inference of attack intent, objectives, and strategies; and this project develops the first method that can predict fine-grained strategic behaviors of attackers.

The significance of this research and the benefit to the public can be demonstrated to certain extent by (a) the severe threat of cyber attacks to the critical infrastructures of the nation, including many infrastructures overseen by the Department of Energy, (b) the importance of cyber security to critical infrastructure protection, and (c) the importance of cyber attack prediction to achieving cyber security. Cui, Xiaohui ORNL; Potok, Thomas E ORNL 2009-12-01 To better understand insurgent activities and asymmetric warfare, a social adaptive model for modeling multiple insurgent groups attacking multiple military and civilian targets is proposed and investigated. This report presents a pilot study using the particle swarm modeling, a widely used non-linear optimal tool to model the emergence of insurgency campaign.

The objective of this research is to apply the particle swarm metaphor as a model of insurgent social adaptation for the dynamically changing environment and to provide insight and understanding of insurgency warfare. Our results show that unified leadership, strategic planning, and effective communication between insurgent groups are not the necessary requirements for insurgents to efficiently attain their objective. M1ore rcentl Colombia has been challenged b% a tic%%%a’e ot guerrilla% ’olence, including both rural and urban attacks.

I Is.::ot prominent.VIEW OF INSURGENCIES 27 BRAZIL Rio de Janeiro Montevideo A tia n tic Ocean The Southern Cone 28 HOEHN AND WEISS the Montoneros were among Argentina’s.Revolu- iionari’ Armed f+orces): The armed branch of t he Guatemalan Communist Party. Organizacion del Pmehlo en.,trmas (ORP.,t) (Arnned People’s. Bohorquez, Juan Camilo; Gourley, Sean; Dixon, Alexander R; Spagat, Michael; Johnson, Neil F 2009-12-17 Many collective human activities, including violence, have been shown to exhibit universal patterns. The size distributions of casualties both in whole wars from 1816 to 1980 and terrorist attacks have separately been shown to follow approximate power-law distributions. However, the possibility of universal patterns ranging across wars in the size distribution or timing of within-conflict events has barely been explored.

Here we show that the sizes and timing of violent events within different insurgent conflicts exhibit remarkable similarities. We propose a unified model of human insurgency that reproduces these commonalities, and explains conflict-specific variations quantitatively in terms of underlying rules of engagement. Our model treats each insurgent population as an ecology of dynamically evolving, self-organized groups following common decision-making processes. Our model is consistent with several recent hypotheses about modern insurgency, is robust to many generalizations, and establishes a quantitative connection between human insurgency, global terrorism and ecology.

Its similarity to financial market models provides a surprising link between violent and non-violent forms of human behaviour. 2013-05-23 command nodes, and rail networks, denying the enemy the ability to operationally maneuver his forces.4 This rapid maneuver, coupled with attacks.insurgencies, each with unique aims and methods to achieve those aims. The models outlined in FM 3-24 are the Maoist, focoist, urban guerilla, and the.Thompson, a British veteran of Burma and the campaign in Malaysia wrote Countering Communist Insurgency. Frank Kitson, another British officer whose. WANG Hui; LIU Shufen; ZHANG Xinjia 2006-01-01 This paper presents a novel probability generation algorithm to predict attacks from an insider who exploits known system vulnerabilities through executing authorized operations.

It is different from most intrusion detection systems (IDSs) because these IDSs are inefficient to resolve threat from authorized insiders. To deter cracker activities, this paper introduces an improved structure of augmented attack tree and a notion of 'minimal attack tree', and proposes a new generation algorithm of minimal attack tree. We can provide a quantitative approach to help system administrators make sound decision. 2014-06-01 from Modern Insurgencies, 17. 20 Case Date Span Outcome Kenya 1952–1956 Insurgent Loss Algerian Independence 1954–1962 Insurgent Win Cyprus 1955.specific factors, this study also demonstrates that there are common “causal recipes” that help to explain the outcome of post World War II insurgencies.demonstrates that there are common “causal recipes” that help to explain the outcome of post World War II insurgencies. The analysis process for this thesis. Kharal, Athar 2010-01-01 This paper models a decision support system to predict the occurance of suicide attack in a given collection of cities.

The system comprises two parts. First part analyzes and identifies the factors which affect the prediction.

Admitting incomplete information and use of linguistic terms by experts, as two characteristic features of this peculiar prediction problem we exploit the Theory of Fuzzy Soft Sets. Hence the Part 2 of the model is an algorithm vz. FSP which takes the assessment of factors given in Part 1 as its input and produces a possibility profile of cities likely to receive the accident. The algorithm is of O(2^n) complexity. It has been illustrated by an example solved in detail. Simulation results for the algorithm have been presented which give insight into the strengths and weaknesses of FSP.

Three different decision making measures have been simulated and compared in our discussion. 2007-01-01 Richard, “The Liberal Impulse in Saudi Arabia,” The Middle East Journal, Vol. 3, Summer 2003, pp. Della Porta, Donatella, “Left Wing.example of this, see Della Porta (1995, pp. 25 CHAPTER SIX Defeating Proto- Insurgencies One of the most important factors in combating proto. 2007-01-01 Crenshaw, ed., Ter- rorism in Context, University Park, Penn.: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1995.

Della Porta, Donatella, “Recruitment.Leites, 1979, p. In della Porta’s (1988) study of Italian left-wing terrorism, she notes that “previous experience in violent political activities.predisposes individuals to involvement in terrorist groups.” 6 Subversion and Insurgency (quoted in della Porta, 1988, p. Finally, blood.

Khalili, Aram; Michalk, Brian; Alford, Lee; Henney, Chris; Gilbert, Logan 2010-04-01 In most organizations, IT (information technology) infrastructure exists to support the organization's mission. The threat of cyber attacks poses risks to this mission. Current network security research focuses on the threat of cyber attacks to the organization's IT infrastructure; however, the risks to the overall mission are rarely analyzed or formalized. This connection of IT infrastructure to the organization's mission is often neglected or carried out ad-hoc. Our work bridges this gap and introduces analyses and formalisms to help organizations understand the mission risks they face from cyber attacks. Modeling an organization's mission vulnerability to cyber attacks requires a description of the IT infrastructure (network model), the organization mission (business model), and how the mission relies on IT resources (correlation model).

With this information, proper analysis can show which cyber resources are of tactical importance in a cyber attack, i.e., controlling them enables a large range of cyber attacks. Such analysis also reveals which IT resources contribute most to the organization's mission, i.e., lack of control over them gravely affects the mission. These results can then be used to formulate IT security strategies and explore their trade-offs, which leads to better incident response. This paper presents our methodology for encoding IT infrastructure, organization mission and correlations, our analysis framework, as well as initial experimental results and conclusions. 2017-01-18 A high-sensitivity blood test, known as a troponin test, could predict the risk of heart attack and death and patients' response to statins, say researchers from the Universities of Edinburgh and Glasgow.

Sylaja P 2009-01-01 Full Text Available Recent evidence suggests that the risk of stroke in first few months after transient ischemic attack is higher than that was previously realized. There are clinical and imaging predictors which help in risk stratifying the patients to identify the high risk group who need immediate hospitalization and urgent evaluation. Recent advances in neuroimaging have revolutionized the evaluation of these patients. Further research is required in the deciding on the optimal treatment of these patients in the acute phase. 2013-01-01 researchreports/RR291z1.html.

This work will be of interest to defense analysts and military plan - ners who are responsible for evaluating current. Insurgencies Sooner and Lead to More Durable Postconflict Peace.duration of insurgencies and which are associ- ated with the length of postconflict peace intervals (the durability of insurgency outcomes), as well as.

Ahmed M. Diab 2014-09-01 Full Text Available This work was divided into two phases. Phase one included the validation of neural network to predict mortar and concrete properties due to sulfate attack. These properties were expansion, weight loss, and compressive strength loss. Assessment of concrete compressive strength up to 200 years due to sulfate attack was considered in phase two. The neural network model showed high validity on predicting compressive strength, expansion and weight loss due to sulfate attack.

Design charts were constructed to predict concrete compressive strength loss. The inputs of these charts were cement content, water cement ratio, C3A content, and sulfate concentration.

These charts can be used easily to predict the compressive strength loss after any certain age and sulfate concentration for different concrete compositions. Sanjeeb Nanda 2008-04-01 Full Text Available The rapid growth of the Internet has triggered an explosion in the number of applications that leverage its capabilities. Unfortunately, many are designed to burden or destroy the capabilities of their peers and the network's infrastructure.

Hence, considerable effort has been focused on detecting and predicting the security breaches they propagate. However, the enormity of the Internet poses a formidable challenge to analyzing such attacks using scalable models. Furthermore, the lack of complete information on network vulnerabilities makes forecasting the systems that may be exploited by such applications in the future very hard.

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This paper presents a technique for deriving a scalable model for representing network attacks, and its application to identify actual attacks with greater certainty amongst false positives and false negatives. It also presents a method to forecast the propagation of security failures proliferated by an attack over time and its likely targets in the future. Mkuzangwe, Nenekazi NP 2017-04-01 Full Text Available presents a fuzzy logic based network intrusion detection system to predict neptune which is a type of a Transmission Control Protocol Synchronized (TCP SYN) flooding attack. The performance of the proposed fuzzy logic based system is compared to that of a. Feldker, DEM; Datson, NA; Veenema, AH; Meulmeester, E; de Kloet, ER; Vreugdenhil, E 2003-01-01 The genetically selected long attack latency (LAL) and short attack latency (SAL) mice differ in a wide variety of behavioural traits and display differences in the serotonergic system and the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA)-axis. Serial analysis of gene expression (SAGE) was used to gen.

Amering, M; Katschnig, H; Berger, P; Windhaber, J; Baischer, W; Dantendorfer, K 1997-06-01 In order to find out whether contextual variables of the first panic attack and the person's reaction to it predict the development of agoraphobia in panic disorder patients, 60 patients with a DSM-III-R diagnosis of panic disorder with agoraphobia and 30 patients suffering from panic disorder without agoraphobia were interviewed about their first panic attack. Single comparisons between groups of agoraphobic and non-agoraphobic patients were carried out and a logistic regression model was applied. Occurrence of the first panic attack in public and the feeling of embarrassment were found to be significantly associated with the development of agoraphobia. It is concluded that eliciting this specific form of social concern at an early stage might help to identify patients at risk for later agoraphobia, which could, in turn, help to further specify early therapeutic interventions and concentrate therapeutic efforts on a high-risk group of panic disorder patients. 2010-01-01 indiscriminate, terrorism as the first step in “ bourgeois -nationalist” insurgencies where a fledgling movement is seeking to gain notoriety for its cause.8.2005), 146. 32 Mary Louise Kelly, “Is Al Qaida Stronger Six Years after Sept.

11?” Transcript from National Public Radio, Morning Edition, September 11, 2007, available. Christina M Mathyssek Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Panic attacks are a source of individual suffering and are an independent risk factor for later psychopathology.

However, much less is known about risk factors for the development of panic attacks, particularly during adolescence when the incidence of panic attacks increases dramatically. We examined whether internalizing and externalizing problems in childhood predict the onset of panic attacks in adolescence. METHOD: This study is part of the TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS, a Dutch longitudinal population cohort study (N = 1,584. Internalizing and Externalizing Problems were collected using the Youth Self-Report (YSR and the parent-report Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL at baseline (age 10-12. At age 18-20, DSM-IV defined panic attacks since baseline were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI. We investigated whether early adolescent Internalizing and Externalizing Problems predicted panic attacks between ages 10-20 years, using survival analysis in univariate and multivariate models. RESULTS: There were N = 314 (19.8% cases who experienced at least one DSM-IV defined panic attack during adolescence and N = 18 (1.2% who developed panic disorder during adolescence.

In univariate analyses, CBCL Total Problems, Internalizing Problems and three of the eight syndrome scales predicted panic attack onset, while on the YSR all broad-band problem scales and each narrow-band syndrome scale predicted panic attack onset. In multivariate analyses, CBCL Social Problems (HR 1.19, p.

2009-12-01 Brookings Institu- tion’s Foreign Policy Studies (U.S.-Pakistan Relations), Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (Pakistan’s Political Economy.discussion of how Pakistan drafted and implemented policies to counter and create insurgencies between 1948 and 2001. Pakistan’s Uber -National Security.Strategy Pakistan’s Uber -National Security Strategy is a function of the conditions surrounding the creation of the nation state, its multiethnic. 2011-03-08 Policy Toward Afghanistan and Pakistan, Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2009 Guevara, Ernesto Che, Guerrilla Warfare, with an.N/A.

ABSTRACT Theorists of Guerilla Warfare like Mao Tse-tung, T.E. Lawrence, and Che Guevara suggest some form of sanctuary is necessary for.Tse-tung, T.E. Lawrence, and Che Guevara suggest some form of sanctuary is necessary for any insurgency to be successful; history shows this to be. 2010-12-01 of Leadership.” 120 Harold H. Kelley, Attribution in Social Interaction, New York: General Learning Press, 1971.

32 outcomes to those positions and.Carrier and Thomson, Viet Cong Motivation, 32–33. 162 Paul Berman, Revolutionary Organization: Institution-Building within the People’s Liberation. Berman, Revolutionary Organization.

165 Koch et al., Chieu Hoi Program, 38. 54 ranking insurgents, the GVN managed to effectively appeal to low.

2010-06-11 Most of the villages in the mountains and Himalayas are very remote with no modern development or infrastructure. Due to this diversity, there has.status from the hands of British imperialism and later from Indian expansionism.”6 S. Muni, in his book Maoist Insurgency in Nepal: Challenges and.No Legitimacy to the Beneficiaries of the New Kot Massacre.” 7S. Muni is an Indian Professor who is said to be an influential Nepal policymaker. 2013-06-14 for abusing Central American immigrants traveling through Mexico to get to the U.S.

Frequently, they forcefully recruit the migrants to carry drugs.violence between rival drug cartels, street gangs, and the government within Mexico has created concern in both Mexico and the United States. The.literature debating whether the cartels are merely a criminal enterprise or whether the cartels represent a new terrorist insurgency in Mexico.

Shahi, Prem. 2010-01-01 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This study focuses on the leadership roles of Pushpa Kamal Dahal, alias 'Prachanda', in the Maoist's political victory in Nepal. The Nepalese Maoist Insurgency under Prachanda's leadership, without strong evident external support and without achieving a military victory over the state, rose to power in a very short time. Prachanda chose an outdated ideology and launched armed struggle to put forward his grievances in spite of the. 2007-05-10 and culture, the sultanate of Pattani historically ruled the sultanate of Kelantan (Malaysia). Today, Kelantan is considered an integral and.provide historical and cultural context, analyze the insurgency, and lastly offer solutions to the conflict before U.S.

Troops become involved. 1.in southern Thailand is of importance to the U.S. And demands greater U.S. Historical Setting and Cultural Context.

Buddhist Thailand. Guidera, K J; Ogden, J A; Highhouse, K; Pugh, L; Beatty, E 1991-01-01 Shark attacks are rare but devastating. This case had major injuries that included an open femoral fracture, massive hemorrhage, sciatic nerve laceration, and significant skin and muscle damage. The patient required 15 operative procedures, extensive physical therapy, and orthotic assistance. A review of the literature pertaining to shark bites is included. SU CaiHong; ZHOU Heng 2009-01-01 The problem of transition prediction for hypersonic boundary layers over a sharp cone has been stud-ied in this work. The Mach number of the oncoming flow is 6, the cone half-angle is 5Ω, and the angle of attack is 1Ω.

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The conventional eN method is used, but the transition location so obtained is obviously incorrect. The reason is that in the conventional method, only the amplifying waves are taken into ac-count, while in fact, for different meridians the decay processes of the disturbances before they begin to grow are different. Based on our own previous work, new interpretation and essential improvement for the eN method are proposed. Not only the amplification process but also the decay process is con-sidered. The location, where by linear stability theory, the amplitude of disturbance wave is amplified from its initial small value to 1%, is considered to be the transition location.

The new result for transi-tion prediction thus obtained is found to be fairly satisfactory. It is also indicated that for the calculation of base flow, boundary layer equations can be used for a small angle of attack. Its computational cost is much smaller than those for DNS.

Pavlov-Dolijanovic, Slavica; Damjanov, Nemanja S; Vujasinovic Stupar, Nada Z; Radunovic, Goran L; Stojanovic, Roksanda M; Babic, Dragan 2013-04-01 To assess the prognostic value of the age at onset of Raynaud's (RP) and of a history of exacerbation of RP attacks for the development of connective tissue disease (CTD) in patients initially found to have primary Raynaud's. 3,035 patients with primary RP (2,702 women and 333 men) were followed for an average of 4.8 years (range from 1 to 10 years). At baseline and every 6 months, they were screened for signs and symptoms of CTD. At 4.8 years of follow-up, 54.7% patients remained as primary RP, 8.1% had developed suspected secondary RP, and 37.2% had developed a definite CTD. Primary RP patients had an earlier onset of RP (mean age of 32.2 years) than those with suspected (mean age 36.5 years, P =.007) or definite secondary RP associated with CTD (mean age of 39.8 years, P =.004).

RP beginning before the age of forty was not significantly associated with the development of CTD. Conversely, the appearance of RP after the age of 40 was significantly associated with the development of CTD (P =.00001). Worsening of RP attacks predicted the development of CTD, especially systemic sclerosis (relative risk RR of 1.42), scleroderma overlap syndrome (RR of 1.18), and mixed CTD (RR of 1.18). Patients whose onset of RP occurred past 40 years of age and those with worsening RP attacks were at risk for the future development of CTD. Pfaff, Steven; Hechter, Michael Norman; Corcoran, Katie 2016-01-01 How do insurgents engaged in high-risk collective action maintain solidarity when faced with increasing costs and dangers?

Based on a combination of process tracing through qualitative evidence and an event-history analysis of a unique data set assembled from naval archives concerning a mass mutiny., proxied here as the duration of a ship's company's adherence to the mutiny, relied on techniques used by the mutiny leadership that increased dependence and imposed control over rank-and-file seamen. In particular, mutiny leaders monitored and sanctioned compliance and exploited informational asymmetries. Wang, Jun; Li, Yunming; Zheng, Bo; Wang, Jian; Wang, Zhiqiang; Duan, Dan; Li, Yuxia; Wang, Qingsong 2016-04-01 To determine whether computed tomography perfusion imaging (CTPI)-derived parameters are associated with vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) in patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA). Patients with first-time anterior circulation TIA (diagnosed within 24 h of onset) and normal cognition, treated between August 2009 and August 2014 at the Department of Neurology of Chengdu Military General Hospital, China, were analyzed retrospectively. Patients underwent whole-brain CTPI within 1 week of TIA to detect cerebral blood volume (CBV), cerebral blood flow (CBF), mean transit time (MTT) and time to peak (TTP) in the ischemic region. Based on cognitive function assessment 4 weeks after TIA, using the Montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA) and mini mental state examination, the patients were divided into control and VCI groups.

CTPI parameters and other clinical data were compared between groups, and Spearman's correlation analysis used to identify associations between cognitive scores and CTPI parameters in the VCI group. 50 patients (25 per group; aged 55-72 years) were included. Patient age, gender, smoking status, alcohol consumption, educational level, time from TIA onset to admission, time from TIA onset to CTPI, and prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, atrial fibrillation and hyperhomocysteinemia did not differ between groups.

Both groups showed TTP and MTT prolongation, CBF reduction, but no change in CBV in the ischemic region; these changes were significantly larger in the VCI group (P. Petr Dzurenda 2015-03-01 Full Text Available The paper deals with possibilities of the network protection against Distributed Denial of Service attacks (DDoS. The basic types of DDoS attacks and their impact on the protected network are presented here. Furthermore, we present basic detection and defense techniques thanks to which it is possible to increase resistance of the protected network or device against DDoS attacks. Moreover, we tested the ability of current commercial Intrusion Prevention Systems (IPS, especially Radware DefensePro 6.10.00 product against the most common types of DDoS attacks. We create five scenarios that are varied in type and strength of the DDoS attacks.

The attacks intensity was much greater than th.

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